Weighted Flow Matching and Physics-Informed Nonlinear Filtering for Parameter Estimation in Digital Twins

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel framework combining weighted flow matching and physics-informed filtering to improve parameter estimation in digital twins, especially under challenging conditions like noise and low observability.

Contribution

It develops an integrated approach that couples weighted generative modeling with physics-informed filtering, enhancing real-time parameter estimation in digital twins.

Findings

Achieved stable moment of inertia estimation in spacecraft digital twins.

Demonstrated significant performance improvements over EKF and EnKF.

Validated the framework's effectiveness under noisy and uncertain conditions.

Abstract

Digital twins (DTs) rely on continuous synchronization between physical systems and their virtual counterparts through online parameter estimation under uncertainty. In many practical settings, however, this task is challenged by low observability, weak excitation, nonlinear dynamics, and noisy or biased measurements. In this work, we develop a new mathematical framework that integrates Weighted Flow Matching (WFM) generative modeling with physics-informed nonlinear filtering to enhance parameter estimation in DTs. WFM relies on dynamic reweighting of training samples, which guides the generative model toward parameter regimes most informative of the evolving system state. This generative component is tightly coupled with a physics-informed filtering architecture based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), yielding a unified DT framework that combines data-driven probability transport with physically consistent state and parameter estimation. The effectiveness of the new integrated framework is demonstrated within a spacecraft DT architecture, where stable moment of inertia estimation is achieved under uncertain and noisy sensing, with significant performance improvements over established approaches such as Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) and Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF). These results highlight the potential of weighted generative modeling as a core mechanism for real-time DT synchronization in operational and mission-critical systems.