Emulating the Forced Response of Climate Models with Flow Matching

TL;DR

This paper introduces a deep learning emulator trained on multiple climate forcing scenarios, capable of generating unseen climate states efficiently, validated against a statistical model for land surface temperature.

Contribution

The study presents a novel deep learning approach that emulates climate model responses to various forcings, enabling rapid scenario generation beyond training data.

Findings

Successfully trained on multiple SSPs to generate unseen climate scenarios.

Validated against MESMER-M for land surface temperature predictions.

Including diverse forcings improves long-term climate trend representation.

Abstract

Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe a range of future scenarios of global economic and demographic development. These SSPs are intrinsically linked to changes in climate forcings, the external drivers, such as greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, which in turn lead to the human impact on the energy balance of the Earth over time. These forcings are fundamental boundary conditions in climate models in order to gain insight into the potential climatic impacts of these changes described by each SSP. Running a climate model, however, is extremely computationally expensive, conflicting with the need for large ensembles of simulations for each model to give, e.g., more robust estimates in the presence of internal variability (the inherent, chaotic fluctuations within the climate system) and scenario uncertainty. Recent research has demonstrated the ability to capture climate model dynamics using machine learning when conditioned on forcings from different climatic scenarios. We here train a Deep Learning (DL) model on multiple SSPs and successfully generate scenarios unseen during training. Our emulator is validated against MESMER-M, a statistical emulator of land surface temperature. Our research demonstrates the capacity to generate such changing climate states in response to a variety of simultaneous climate forcings (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphate aerosols, and ozone). In particular, our ablation studies underline a need to include a range of different forcings to represent long-term atmospheric trends with a DL emulator.