A Bayesian Longitudinal Spatial Normative Model for Individualized Brain Deviation Mapping

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian longitudinal spatial normative model for brain deviation mapping that accounts for spatial and temporal dependencies, improving accuracy over existing methods.

Contribution

It presents a unified hierarchical Bayesian framework that models within-subject temporal and spatial brain deviations, enhancing individualized neuroimaging analysis.

Findings

Model reduces deviation-map reconstruction error in simulations.

Achieves 54% RMSE reduction in MRI data compared to non-spatial models.

Identifies brain regions linked to early neurodegeneration.

Abstract

Normative modeling enables individualized characterization of structural brain deviations by evaluating subjects against a reference population rather than a group average. Most existing implementations treat brain regions independently and remain cross-sectional, despite the availability of repeated neuroimaging measurements and the well-documented spatial organization of neuroanatomical variation. We propose a Bayesian longitudinal spatial normative model that jointly captures within-subject temporal dependence and spatially structured subject-specific deviations within a unified hierarchical framework. The individualized deviation map is treated as a latent spatial process with an explicit posterior distribution, yielding a principled Bayes estimator under squared error loss rather than an ad hoc residual summary. Across six simulation scenarios encompassing varying spatial dependence, nonlinear trajectories, irregular visit schedules, and missing follow-up, the proposed model consistently reduced deviation-map reconstruction error relative to independent cross-sectional and longitudinal non-spatial benchmarks while maintaining stable calibration. In an application to OASIS-3 structural MRI data, the model reduced RMSE by 54% relative to the independent cross-sectional model and by 45% relative to the longitudinal non-spatial model. Regional deviation burden was concentrated in the temporal pole, entorhinal cortex, inferior temporal cortex, posterior cingulate, and parahippocampal cortex, consistent with regions implicated in early Alzheimer-type neurodegeneration. Subject-level profiles revealed substantial heterogeneity in regional abnormality patterns, including marked multiregional deviation with preserved global cognitive scores.