Europe and the Geopolitics of AGI: The Need for a Preparedness Plan

TL;DR

This paper discusses the potential emergence of AGI between 2030 and 2040, its geopolitical impacts, and Europe's current gaps in preparedness, emphasizing the need for a coordinated European strategy.

Contribution

It provides an analysis of AGI's geopolitical implications and identifies critical gaps in Europe's preparedness, proposing policy options for a coordinated response.

Findings

AGI may emerge between 2030 and 2040, possibly earlier.

AGI could significantly shift global economic and military power.

Europe currently has gaps in strategic awareness and policy coordination.

Abstract

Artificial general intelligence (AGI)--defined here as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work--has moved from speculation to the centre of political and strategic debate. This paper examines three questions: how soon AGI might emerge, how it could reshape geopolitics, and whether Europe is adequately prepared. Drawing on empirical trends in AI capabilities, expert forecasting surveys, and policy analysis, we find that a plausible window for AGI emergence falls between 2030 and 2040, or potentially earlier, though substantial uncertainty remains. Our analysis of the geopolitical implications suggests that AGI could fundamentally alter the global distribution of economic and military power, intensify interstate competition, and strain existing governance frameworks. Assessing Europe's current positioning, we identify critical gaps: limited strategic awareness of frontier AI progress, structural weaknesses in compute infrastructure and talent retention, low rates of industrial AI adoption, and fragmented policy responses at both EU and Member State levels that do not match the potential scale of disruption.These findings point to a need for a coordinated European preparedness agenda. We outline policy options centred on building institutional capacity for AGI situational awareness, strengthening Europe's position in the AI value chain, and developing frameworks for international stability in an era of increasingly capable AI systems.