A Constraint Programming Approach for n-Day Lookahead Playoff Clinching in the NHL

TL;DR

This paper introduces a constraint programming-based algorithm to determine when NHL teams will clinch playoff spots within a specified number of days, efficiently handling complex tie-breaker rules.

Contribution

It presents a novel tree search algorithm combined with constraint programming to accurately and efficiently identify playoff clinching scenarios in the NHL.

Findings

Validated with hundreds of scenarios from NHL data (2021-2024).

Efficiently explores outcome spaces using pruning and heuristics.

Can be extended to other playoff metrics and scenarios.

Abstract

In professional sports, a team has clinched the playoffs if they are guaranteed a postseason spot, regardless of the outcomes of any remaining games. As the season progresses, sports fans and other stakeholders are interested in precisely when, and under what conditions, their team will clinch the playoffs. In this paper, we investigate playoff clinching in the context of the National Hockey League (NHL), where it is computationally challenging to produce clinching scenarios due, in part, to complex tie-breakers. We present an algorithm that determines under which combinations of game outcomes in the next $n$ days a team will clinch the playoffs (i.e., "$n$-day lookahead clinching"). Our approach is a custom tree search which employs various preprocessing techniques, pruning strategies, and node ordering heuristics to efficiently explore the space of possible outcomes. The tree search leverages a constraint programming (CP)-based subroutine for inference that determines if a team has clinched the playoffs for some snapshot in time of the regular season (i.e., "0-day lookahead clinching"). This CP subroutine aims to find a counter-example in which the team being evaluated is eliminated, taking into account qualification rules and the NHL's extensive list of tie-breakers. We validate the efficacy of our algorithm using hundreds of scenarios based on public NHL data for the seasons 2021-22 through 2024-25. The methods introduced can be readily extended to other metrics of interest, including mathematical proof of playoff elimination, clinching the President's Trophy, as well as clinching (or being eliminated from clinching) any other seed in the standings.