Project Life Cycles in Open-Source Software

TL;DR

This paper models developer engagement and growth dynamics in open-source projects using differential equations, providing insights into project lifecycles and estimating lifetime engagement and value.

Contribution

It introduces a novel differential equations model for open-source project growth, capturing interactions between developer activity and project development over time.

Findings

Model calibrates well to many open-source projects

Estimates lifetime developer engagement and growth

Supports estimation of project lifetime production value

Abstract

Using methods previously applied to product life cycles, this paper models developer engagement through the project life cycle for open-source projects, and detects similar dynamics in a cross section of projects. Endogenous growth theory is used to model growth dynamics in open-source software engineering, while incorporating the interactions between growth levels and developer activity over time using systems of differential equations. The solution to this model calibrates well to many open-source projects. The model generates an estimate of the lifetime developer engagement and growth, which supports estimating a lifetime production value of open-source projects.