Information as Maximum-Caliber Deviation: A bridge between Integrated Information Theory and the Free Energy Principle

TL;DR

This paper introduces a mathematical framework linking the Free Energy Principle and Integrated Information Theory through a maximum-caliber deviation measure of information, enabling new insights into consciousness and cognition.

Contribution

It defines information as a deviation from a maximum-caliber path ensemble, unifying IIT and FEP via constrained entropy-maximization and extending to dynamical regimes.

Findings

IIT cause/effect repertoires emerge from MaxCal variational principles.

Information $$ is shown to be equivalent to prediction error in certain models.

The framework connects FEP, IIT, and thermodynamic theories of cognition.

Abstract

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) is a leading framework for mathematically modeling self-organization and learning, while Integrated Information Theory (IIT) is a computational ontology of consciousness oriented around irreducible cause and effect. While conceptual unifications have been proposed and appear to be supported by empirical findings, the absence of a rigorous mathematical mapping places upper bounds on their precision and testability. This work proposes that information can be defined as the deviation $\psi$ of realized dynamics from a constrained maximum-caliber (MaxCal) path ensemble over a finite time horizon. Under this definition, each of the cause/effect repertoires central to IIT 3.0 emerge directly from MaxCal variational principles, allowing IIT's phenomenological calculus to be re-derived from constrained entropy-maximization (CMEP). This framework supplies a theoretical bridge to active inference, which is mathematically dual to CMEP under Langevin dynamics, and offers a principled route for extending IIT to new dynamical regimes. When the approach is applied under the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for Markov chains and via large deviations theory (LDT) to Ising models, information $\psi$ is shown to be equivalent to prediction error under accompanying predictive coding models. This may hold relevance to the ``hill-shaped trajectory'' of $\Phi$ observed in neuronal cultures adapting to sensory inputs. Together, these results provide a physically and mathematically grounded rationale for studying the convergence of FEP, IIT, and thermodynamic frameworks of cognition such as recent work grounding consciousness in violations of the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (FDT).