An investigation of magnetic energy and helicity thresholds at the onset of solar eruptions based on numerical simulations

TL;DR

This study identifies a universal helicity ratio threshold of approximately 0.38 that signals the onset of solar eruptions across various magnetic configurations, aiding physics-based eruption prediction.

Contribution

The paper demonstrates that the helicity ratio H_j/H_r is a robust, topology-independent indicator of eruption onset, validated through comprehensive 3D MHD simulations.

Findings

H_j/H_r threshold at eruption is 0.38 ± 0.04 across all cases.

H_j/H_r is largely independent of the eruption's subsequent evolution.

Post-eruption evolution of H_j/H_r varies with magnetic topology.

Abstract

Identifying universal, topology-independent thresholds in the coronal magnetic fields at onset of solar eruptions is crucial for physics-based prediction of eruptions. To this end, we systematically analyze the evolution of magnetic energy and helicity in twelve high-fidelity 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations where eruptions are triggered by magnetic reconnection. The simulations encompass a comprehensive parameter space, including bipolar and quadrupolar configurations, sheared arcades and pre-existing flux ropes, and various photospheric driving motions. We find that the ratio of current-carrying helicity to total relative helicity $(H_j/H_r)$ exhibits a remarkably consistent threshold of $0.38 \pm 0.04$ at eruption onset across all cases, with a coefficient of variation of only $\sim 10$\%. This threshold specifically characterizes the critical conditions at eruption onset and is largely independent of the subsequent temporal evolution, making it the most robust eruptivity indicator identified. In contrast, other normalized helicity and energy metrics show greater scatter. Crucially, we further find that $H_j/H_r$ does not necessarily achieve its peak at the eruption onset time and its post-eruption evolution diverges based on magnetic topology: it continues to increase in bipolar configurations due to tether-cutting reconnection, which transforms sheared arcade into the erupting current-carrying magnetic flux, but decreases in quadrupolar configurations as breakout reconnection peels off the erupting flux. These results highlight the helicity ratio as a promising and consistent eruptivity indicator and provide new insights into its dynamic evolution due to different reconnections.