TokaMind for Power Grid: Cross-Domain Transfer from Fusion Plasma

TL;DR

TokaMind, a multi-modal transformer model trained on fusion plasma data, demonstrates effective cross-domain transfer to power grid and industrial datasets, improving event classification and early-warning detection.

Contribution

This work is the first to validate TokaMind's transferability outside nuclear fusion and introduces a framework for cross-domain evaluation of PMU datasets.

Findings

TokaMind achieves 0.837 F1 on power grid event classification.

Power grid topology influences classification difficulty more than model capacity.

CSD indicators improve early-warning F1 from 0.696 to 0.750.

Abstract

TokaMind is a multi-modal transformer (MMT) foundation model pre-trained on tokamak plasma diagnostics data from MAST, where it was shown to outperform CNN-based approaches on fusion benchmarks. We investigate whether its learned representations generalize to physically distinct but structurally analogous domains. Through systematic experimentation across four domains-industrial bearing degradation, NASA CMAPSS turbofan degradation, and two independent power grid PMU datasets-we identify four transfer-favoring characteristics that help explain where TokaMind's pretrained representations are most effective. Power grid synchrophasor data matches this target-domain profile most directly, while industrial degradation datasets demonstrate that TokaMind can still yield useful performance under partial alignment, especially when task design and feature construction expose physically meaningful degradation structure. On the GESL/PNNL 500-event benchmark with provider-aware evaluation, TokaMind achieves test $\text{F1} = 0.837 \pm 0.040$ (3~seeds) for severe event classification. Our central finding, however, is not the aggregate score: classification difficulty is structurally determined by provider-level grid topology, not model capacity. In the single-window early-warning regime, TokaMind outperforms a CNN baseline (F1~0.889 vs.~0.878)--a reversal that disappears as more event windows are provided. Furthermore, Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicators, used as a confidence gate rather than a classification label, improve F1 from 0.696 to 0.750 at 63% coverage-outperforming the CNN baseline (0.636) at any coverage level. These results establish the first cross-domain validation of TokaMind outside nuclear fusion and propose a transferability framework and revised evaluation protocol for multi-source PMU datasets.