Data-driven moving-window Bayesian inference for transient CO2-temperature network models of buildings

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference method with a moving window to calibrate a CO2-temperature network model of buildings, enabling accurate, real-time thermal and airflow estimation from sparse data.

Contribution

It develops a joint Bayesian inference framework that estimates thermal parameters, airflow, and occupancy trajectories, improving building monitoring under limited sensing conditions.

Findings

Accurately reconstructs trajectories within inference windows.

Provides low forecast errors in synthetic and physical experiments.

Detects regime transitions through increased uncertainty and noise levels.

Abstract

In this work, we proposes a CO2-temperature network model that links multi-zone mass transport and thermal dynamics through shared latent drivers, airflow and occupancy. The thermal component is formulated as a resistance-capacitance (RC) network augmented with airflow-driven convective exchange, while the CO2 component is governed by inter-zonal convective transport. To calibrate the model and track time-varying operating conditions based on sparse sensing, we introduce a moving-window Bayesian inference procedure that jointly estimates thermal parameters, airflow and occupancy trajectories. The estimation also provides room-specific sensor noise levels, yielding posterior predictive forecasts with credible intervals. The framework is assessed using a controlled synthetic benchmark, and a scaled physical validation experiment using CO2 and temperature sensing. In both settings, the posterior accurately reconstructs trajectories within windows and delivers low forecast errors. When inference windows overlap abrupt regime transitions, the widened uncertainty bands and increased inferred noise levels provide an interpretable diagnostic of model-data mismatch, followed by rapid recovery once the new regime is observed. Overall, coupling CO2-informed airflow with thermal dynamics yields a robust approach for conductive and advective temperature prediction, supporting practical monitoring and energy-performance assessment under limited sensing.