On the Problem of Prognostication of Bright Kreutz Sungrazers

TL;DR

This paper discusses the complex orbital behaviors of Kreutz sungrazers caused by fragmentation and proposes an algorithm for predicting bright sungrazers, emphasizing cautious application due to its unverified empirical basis.

Contribution

It introduces a novel algorithm based on orbital period patterns to forecast bright Kreutz sungrazers, extending potential predictions into the 22nd century.

Findings

Orbital periods of fragment nuclei follow a distinct pattern.

The algorithm shows potential for long-term prognostication.

Fragmentation causes highly nonuniform and complex orbital distributions.

Abstract

Tidal fragmentation at perihelion and nontidal fragmentation elsewhere cause the orbital distribution of Kreutz sungrazers of all sizes to be extremely complicated and highly nonuniform. Among the features are (largely fortuitous) clusters of bright (naked-eye) objects and clumps of dwarf objects (often closely genetically related, as their detection primarily by the SOHO coronagraphs suggests) on the one hand; and both spectacular and less brilliant sibling sungrazers, whose perihelion times are scattered over centuries, on the other hand. Investigation of four fragment nuclei of the Great September Comet of 1882, the products of a perihelion breakup of the comet's original nucleus, showed that their orbital periods followed a distinct pattern, which likewise applied to other tidally split sungrazers and was characterized by a specific value of the second difference of parameter u_frg of neighboring fragments' centers of mass. The algorithm has a potential for the prognostication of bright Kreutz sungrazers over the rest of the 21st century and beyond. However, because of its as yet unverified empirical character, the utmost caution should be exercised when applying the procedure.