Climate and dengue synchronization in southern Brazil: a municipal analysis with cross-state validation

TL;DR

This study investigates how climate change influences the synchronization of dengue outbreaks across municipalities in southern Brazil, revealing a transition to higher synchronization linked to climate anomalies and identifying regional differences.

Contribution

It introduces a novel analysis of dengue synchronization using the Event Synchronization method and demonstrates climate's role in outbreak coherence across regions.

Findings

Increased synchronization coincides with a transition to high-transmission regimes.

Climate anomalies are significantly associated with more permissive days for transmission.

Climate amplifies synchronization, with regional differences in its role for outbreak onset.

Abstract

Dengue transmission is rapidly expanding beyond its historical tropical range, raising concerns about how climate change may alter the collective dynamics of epidemics. While most studies focus on transmission risk, much less is known about how climate affects the synchronization of outbreaks. In this work, we investigate dengue synchronization using epidemiological and climate data from 74 municipalities in the state of Paran\'a (southern Brazil) between 2010 and 2024. We quantify outbreak coherence using the Event Synchronization (ES) method. Our results reveal a transition from a low-transmission regime to a high-transmission regime accompanied by a marked increase in synchronization across cities. We also show that climate anomalies increase the number of permissive days for dengue transmission. Our results suggest that such days are significantly associated with outbreak synchronization. We identify a two-stage climate mechanism: conducive climatic conditions first reduce the probability of asynchronous states and coincide with the emergence of synchronized outbreaks, and subsequently sustain higher synchronization levels. Extending the analysis through comparative analyses in Cear\'a and Minas Gerais, we uncover that climate consistently amplifies synchronization, although its role in the onset of synchronization depends on regional climatic regimes. These findings highlight climate-driven synchronization as an emerging feature shaping dengue dynamics.