Earth-o1: A Grid-free Observation-native Atmospheric World Model

TL;DR

Earth-o1 introduces a grid-free, observation-native atmospheric model that learns continuous Earth system dynamics directly from raw sensor data, enabling real-time forecasting without traditional numerical solvers.

Contribution

It presents a novel, continuous, grid-free modeling approach that directly learns from ungridded observational data, surpassing limitations of traditional grid-based models.

Findings

Achieves surface forecast skill comparable to operational systems.

Enables real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference.

Provides a scalable, data-driven Earth digital twin.

Abstract

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.