Higher-order interactions in ecology can be hidden in plain sight
Violeta Calleja-Solanas, Santiago Lamata-Ot\'in, Carlos G\'omez-Ambrosi, Jes\'us G\'omez-Garde\~nes, Sandro Meloni

TL;DR
This paper demonstrates that higher-order ecological interactions can often be mistaken for pairwise interactions when analyzing abundance time series, highlighting challenges in accurately inferring ecological mechanisms.
Contribution
It reveals that higher-order Lotka-Volterra dynamics can be mimicked by pairwise models, emphasizing the need for additional data to correctly identify ecological interactions.
Findings
Higher-order interactions can be reproduced by pairwise models.
Time-series data alone may be insufficient to infer true interaction structures.
Identifiability issues can lead to misleading ecological interpretations.
Abstract
Higher-order interactions are increasingly recognized as a key component of ecological dynamics. However, we show that higher-order Lotka-Volterra dynamics can, in some scenarios, be accurately reproduced by effective pairwise models fitted to the same abundance time series. Consequently, higher-order interactions cannot, in general, be inferred from time-series data alone. We further identify a fundamental problem of mechanistic identifiability, whereby distinct interaction mechanisms generate nearly indistinguishable dynamics, potentially leading to accurate yet misleading ecological interpretations. Our results highlight the need to complement time-series data with additional ecological information to infer interaction structure reliably.
Peer Reviews
No public reviews on file for this paper yet. If you reviewed it on a platform where reviews are public (OpenReview, ICLR, NeurIPS, ICML), you can paste yours below so the community can read it here.
Videos
No videos yet. Explain this paper in a talk, walkthrough, or lecture? Add one.
