The Rise and Possible Decline of Societal Complexity

TL;DR

This paper suggests societal complexity has peaked and may decline, based on a thermodynamic analogy and the timing of technological milestones, indicating a potential slowdown in transformative innovation.

Contribution

It introduces a novel perspective linking societal complexity to a logistic growth pattern and discusses implications of a possible decline in societal innovation.

Findings

Complexity peaks and may decline as entropy increases.

Transformative events follow a logistic growth curve.

Societal fragility may increase as complexity diminishes.

Abstract

Societal complexity may be at a historical peak. Distinct from entropy, complexity tends to rise as systems move away from order, crest at an intermediate state, and decline as entropy continues increasing. The use of a thermodynamic analogy and the timing of major technological milestones, from fire to artificial intelligence, shows that the acceleration and recent compression of transformative events fit the derivative of a logistic growth curve. This pattern suggests that the rapid rise in structural and technological novelty may soon begin slowing. Notably, the trajectory parallels the bell-shaped rate of global population growth, consistent with the view that demographic expansion fuels innovation. If complexity growth is indeed cresting, societies face the challenge of managing heightened fragility while adapting to diminishing returns in transformative change. This perspective explores whether the rapid acceleration of technological innovation observed in recent centuries may reflect a civilizational system approaching the region of maximal complexity often associated with the edge of chaos.