Machine learning inference of fission yields from gamma spectroscopy for very low-yield nuclear test verification

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that machine learning models trained on simulated gamma spectra can accurately classify and estimate yields of very low-yield nuclear tests, aiding verification under the CTBT.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach using ML trained on high-fidelity simulations to infer nuclear test yields from gamma spectroscopy data.

Findings

XGBoost achieves >95% accuracy near yield thresholds

Regression model has 12.4% mean absolute relative error

Method is effective for tests conducted 1 month to 1 year prior

Abstract

Very low-yield nuclear tests pose a major verification challenge for the zero-yield standard of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The zero-yield standard prohibits any explosive experiment that produces a self-sustaining fission chain reaction while allowing subcritical experiments. Previous research shows that on-site gamma spectroscopy of post-test debris provides useful insight into the criticality level, although it remains heavily dependent on knowledge of certain experimental settings. Here, we adopt a new approach whereby machine learning models are trained on simulated gamma spectroscopy data to infer the fission yield of a nuclear very low-yield test. Using high-fidelity 3D Monte Carlo particle transport simulations, we generated gamma spectra measured outside containment vessels after very low-yield tests for 66 million representative scenarios. From these spectra, we extracted 82 fission-product-to-plutonium-239 peak ratios, then trained ML models for two tasks: (1) binary classification of whether a test exceeded a chosen yield threshold, and (2) regression to estimate the actual yield. We find that XGBoost performs best on the classification task across the most policy-relevant yield range. The classifier achieves high accuracy even for yields near the chosen threshold (e.g., >95% for yields +-100 g around a threshold at 1 kg TNT), and the regressor presents a mean absolute relative error of 12.4% for measurements taken a month to a year after the test. These results demonstrate that using machine learning to infer the yield of a past very low-yield nuclear test from gamma spectroscopy data is feasible and accurate. This approach can support efforts to establish a robust verification protocol for the zero-yield standard and could pave the way for a future yield threshold-based verification regime that is both technically feasible and politically viable.