The Streaming Reservoir Convergence Theorem: A Prospect-Theoretic Framework for Multi-Provider Adaptive Streaming

TL;DR

The paper introduces the Streaming Reservoir Convergence Theorem (SRCT), a new mathematical framework for multi-provider adaptive streaming that improves failover speed, reliability, and quality stability.

Contribution

It proposes a novel reservoir-based model for adaptive streaming, providing theoretical guarantees and practical improvements over existing systems.

Findings

Achieves a harmonic lower bound on reservoir safety with expected uptime proportional to harmonic number.

Demonstrates 3-5x speedup in provider probing compared to batched methods.

Empirically verifies theorems with Monte Carlo simulations, showing significant improvements in stream depletion time and probing speed.

Abstract

We present the Streaming Reservoir Convergence Theorem (SRCT), a novel mathematical framework for multi-provider adaptive bitrate streaming that addresses three fundamental structural weaknesses in current systems: linear provider probing, reactive failover, and cold standby transitions. SRCT models stream acquisition as a concurrent reservoir filling problem$-$probing all $N$ providers simultaneously rather than in batches$-$and maintains $k$ pre-verified, pre-fetched standby streams alongside the active stream to enable sub-second failover with zero user-visible disruption. We prove four principal results: (1) a harmonic lower bound on reservoir safety showing that $k$ independent streams provide $H_k / \bar{\lambda}$ expected uptime where $H_k$ is the $k$-th harmonic number; (2) a concurrent acquisition speedup $S(N,b) = (N/b) \cdot (1-F^b)/(1-F^N)$ over batched probing, yielding $3$-$5\times$ practical improvement; (3) monotonic non-decreasing quality under lazy-refill with convergence to the Pareto-optimal frontier; and (4) a prospect-weighted switching rule$-$using Kahneman-Tversky value functions with $\alpha=\beta=0.88$, $\lambda=2.25$ $-$ that provably eliminates thrashing between similar-quality streams via a no-thrash bound on the expected switch count. We implement SRCT across two production streaming pipelines: a primary movie/TV system serving 12+ HLS providers with $k=3$ reservoir slots, and a live sports system with multi-format DASH/HLS failover. Empirical verification via Monte Carlo simulation (5000 trials) confirms all four theorems across 22 independent checks. The reservoir of $k=3$ streams achieves $9.15\times$ mean time to depletion versus a single stream, and concurrent probing of 12 providers at 40% failure rate yields a $4.27\times$ speedup over the current batched-by-3 default.