Digital Epidemiology with Awareness-Based Event-Triggered Migration in Networked Cyber-Physical Systems

TL;DR

This paper presents a new digital epidemiology model integrating awareness-based, event-triggered human mobility control within a networked cyber-physical system to effectively reduce disease spread.

Contribution

It introduces a novel epidemic model combining physical movement and digital information flow with decentralized, awareness-driven migration regulation mechanisms.

Findings

Event-triggered migration suppresses disease spread.

Lower infection peaks in heterogeneous populations.

Analytical epidemic threshold derived using MMCA.

Abstract

Understanding how human mobility and information propagation influence the course of an epidemic remains a key challenge in digital epidemiology. In this work, we develop a new awareness-based, event-triggered epidemic model embedded within a networked Cyber-Physical System (CPS). In our framework, disease transmission and the dissemination of epidemic-related information evolve together on two interconnected layers. In detail, the physical layer models disease spread through human movement between two types of locations - residences and transfer stations - forming a bipartite metapopulation network. This structure captures the rendezvous effect, which reflects how gatherings in shared locations contribute to infection spread. The cyber layer represents the flow of information through digital communication networks. We introduce an event-triggered migration regulation mechanism, whereby individuals adapt their movement patterns based on local awareness thresholds, leading to a decentralized control process embedded within the network. Using a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), we derive the epidemic threshold analytically and validate our results through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings show that event-triggered migration effectively suppresses the overall spread of the disease and lowers infection peaks - especially in heterogeneous populations and densely connected gathering points. These results demonstrate the potential of CPS-based epidemic models to enable real-time, awareness-driven interventions and to inform the design of decentralized control strategies that leverage digital communication dynamics.