Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade

TL;DR

This study analyzes accelerating seismicity and deformation at Campi Flegrei, suggesting a critical transition around 2030-2034 driven by magmatic activity, with significant implications for eruption risk and system evolution.

Contribution

It introduces a regularised finite-time singularity model to describe acceleration, providing new insights into the system's critical transition and underlying processes.

Findings

Acceleration better described by finite-time singularity than exponential growth

Critical time estimated around 2030-2034 with 4 meters uplift expected

Deep magmatic volatiles drive the system's evolution, approaching a mechanical threshold

Abstract

Campi Flegrei, a large caldera in southern Italy, is among the most hazardous volcanic systems on Earth, directly threatening over one million people. Since 2005, it has entered a phase of accelerating uplift accompanied by intensified seismicity, raising the key question of whether this evolution will culminate in eruption, a bradyseismic peak, or another regime change. Here, we show that the acceleration of seismicity and geodetic deformation is better described by a regularised finite-time singularity than by exponential growth, implying not just a better empirical representation but a different underlying process with potentially dire consequences for the system's subsequent evolution. Independent analyses converge on a critical time $t_c \approx 2030-2034$, with uplift projected to reach about 4 metres by the early 2030s. Geochemical and statistical evidence indicates that deep magmatic volatile input drives this evolution by progressively pressurising the crust. Although no evidence of imminent eruption is found, the system appears to be approaching a critical mechanical threshold whose outcome remains uncertain, requiring sustained high-resolution monitoring and continuously updated forecasts.