Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade
Davide Zaccagnino, Didier Sornette, Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino, Matteo Picozzi

TL;DR
This study analyzes accelerating seismicity and deformation at Campi Flegrei, suggesting a critical transition around 2030-2034 driven by magmatic activity, with significant implications for eruption risk and system evolution.
Contribution
It introduces a regularised finite-time singularity model to describe acceleration, providing new insights into the system's critical transition and underlying processes.
Findings
Acceleration better described by finite-time singularity than exponential growth
Critical time estimated around 2030-2034 with 4 meters uplift expected
Deep magmatic volatiles drive the system's evolution, approaching a mechanical threshold
Abstract
Campi Flegrei, a large caldera in southern Italy, is among the most hazardous volcanic systems on Earth, directly threatening over one million people. Since 2005, it has entered a phase of accelerating uplift accompanied by intensified seismicity, raising the key question of whether this evolution will culminate in eruption, a bradyseismic peak, or another regime change. Here, we show that the acceleration of seismicity and geodetic deformation is better described by a regularised finite-time singularity than by exponential growth, implying not just a better empirical representation but a different underlying process with potentially dire consequences for the system's subsequent evolution. Independent analyses converge on a critical time , with uplift projected to reach about 4 metres by the early 2030s. Geochemical and statistical evidence indicates that deep…
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