Mapping Emerging Climate Misinformation Playbooks in the Global South

TL;DR

This study analyzes how climate misinformation in the Global South, especially on YouTube in Brazil, evolves from denial to more subtle, solution-focused narratives that undermine climate policies and target vulnerable regions.

Contribution

It introduces a large-scale analysis of climate misinformation strategies, highlighting the emergence of 'new denial' and its sophisticated tactics in digital ecosystems.

Findings

Traditional denial disputes scientific evidence.

Emerging 'new denial' undermines climate policies.

New denial content attracts higher engagement.

Abstract

Climate misinformation continues to erode support for climate action, a challenge that is especially acute in the Global South, where high climate vulnerability intersects with development pressures. In rapidly evolving digital ecosystems, misinformation adapts to platform incentives, shifting from overt rejection of climate science toward more subtle narratives that contest proposed solutions. This study integrates large-scale platform data with qualitative content analysis to examine how information systems shape contemporary climate discourse. Using a dataset of 226,775 climate-related YouTube videos from Brazil (2019-2025), we identify two dominant misinformation strategies: traditional denial that disputes scientific evidence and an emerging "new denial" that accepts climate change while undermining mitigation and adaptation policies. We find a pronounced transition to solution-focused narratives that target renewable energy, climate governance, and environmental advocates. New denial content is produced by a wider array of actors, attracts higher engagement, and employs more sophisticated persuasive techniques. These patterns disproportionately affect regions already facing structural inequities and bring broader concerns about platform accountability in unequal information environments and suggest the need for governance approaches capable of addressing new denial, a rapidly adapting form of harmful content that often evades existing moderation policies.