Predicting Wind Loads on Container Ships in Harbor Environments through Multi-Fidelity Modeling

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling framework combining empirical and CFD models to accurately predict wind loads on modern container ships in harbor environments, reducing computational costs.

Contribution

It develops a recursive co-kriging based multi-fidelity approach that improves prediction accuracy and efficiency over traditional empirical models for ship wind load estimation.

Findings

Multi-fidelity models outperform single-fidelity in accuracy.

The approach reduces reliance on high-cost CFD simulations.

Validated across various configurations and harbor scenarios.

Abstract

Modern container ships face higher wind loads due to increased windage areas, making accurate predictions of wind loads essential for mooring design. Existing empirical models, largely developed for container ships with smaller windage areas and simpler geometrical configurations than those of modern large-scale vessels, often lack accuracy and do not account for the influence of nearby structures. This study proposes a multi-fidelity surrogate modelling framework for the prediction of wind-load coefficients, combining empirical correlations with simplified and detailed CFD models for ships in open-sea and harbor environments. The approach relies on recursive co-kriging to consistently fuse information across fidelity levels, enabling accurate predictions at a reduced computational cost. A sensitivity analysis is used to identify the most influential geometric parameters, and the resulting reduced parameter space is explored through sequential sampling to efficiently construct the training database. The surrogate models are validated over a wide range of loading configurations and for two distinct harbor environments. The results demonstrate that the multi-fidelity approach significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to single-fidelity models, while substantially reducing the reliance on high-fidelity simulations. In particular, the proposed framework captures the dependence of wind loads on key geometric parameters and consistently outperforms traditional empirical correlations, providing a robust and efficient tool for engineering applications.