CosmicDancePro -- Measuring LEO satellite's orbital decay and network connectivity implications during solar storms

TL;DR

CosmicDancePro is an open-source tool designed to analyze the impact of solar storms on LEO satellite networks, focusing on orbital decay and connectivity disruptions, exemplified through the Starlink constellation during recent solar storms.

Contribution

We introduce CosmicDancePro, a comprehensive open-source framework that integrates diverse datasets to evaluate LEO satellite resilience during space weather events.

Findings

Starlink adopts specific fleet management strategies during solar storms.

Identified mechanisms behind 'W'-shaped altitude variations in LEO constellations.

Quantified connectivity degradation including outages, latency spikes, and data rate drops during storms.

Abstract

The May 2024 solar superstorm highlighted the vulnerability of rapidly expanding low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks to severe space weather events. To systematically evaluate LEO network resilience, we introduce an open-source tool, CosmicDancePro. It enables a comprehensive analysis of the effects of solar storms in the LEO satellite network. It integrates real-world multimodal datasets, including space weather measurements from several satellites, upper-atmospheric density conditions from data-driven and high-fidelity physics-based models, and LEO satellite trajectory and LEO network measurement traces to quantify orbital decay driven by enhanced atmospheric density and network connectivity degradation. We utilize CosmicDancePro to analyze the Starlink constellation's behavior during two recent major solar storms. First, we identify the specific fleet management strategies Starlink adopts during the May 2024 solar superstorm and how they differ from its regular orbit-correction strategy. Second, we identify the mechanisms driving the previously unexplained 'W'-shaped altitude variation pattern across orbital planes of LEO constellations. Finally, our network-layer analysis quantifies the connectivity degradation during these storms, revealing transient disruptions that include repetitive short-lived outages, reconfiguration latency spikes above 500 ms, up to 60% increase in uplink loss, distorted diurnal latency patterns, and a 10+ Mbps drop in end-user data rates during storm peaks.