Co-State Based Data Fusion and Risk Aware Filtering for Spacecraft Navigation and Hazard Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a co-state based data fusion framework for spacecraft navigation and hazard prediction that unifies geometric, stochastic, and probabilistic methods for early failure detection.

Contribution

It presents a novel co-state based approach that integrates geometric consistency, stochastic inference, and risk assessment without relying on predefined fault models.

Findings

Detects internal model inconsistency earlier than EKF divergence.

Unifies geometric, stochastic, and probabilistic analysis in a single online pipeline.

Provides early-warning signals for spacecraft failure modes.

Abstract

This paper develops a co-state based fusion frame work for spacecraft navigation, consistency monitoring, and hazard forecasting. A differential algebraic co-state is introduced as an instantaneous Lagrange multiplier that enforces measurement dynamics compatibility at the differential level and provides a physically interpretable signal of geometric inconsistency. On a longer time scale, co-state and innovation trajectories are used to learn a continuous time Markov generator governing transitions between coarse behavioural regimes, enabling intrinsic probabilistic risk forecasting through mode probabilities and mean first-passage time (MFPT). The resulting architecture unifies geometric projection, stochastic inference, and probabilistic risk assessment in a single online pipeline without requiring predefined fault models, labelled failure data, or heuristic thresholds. The framework is demonstrated on real lunar powered-descent telemetry, where it detects structural internal model inconsistency significantly earlier than physical divergence or statistical inconsistency in an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The results show that geometric inconsistency, stochastic drift, and probabilistic risk rise coherently prior to failure, yielding interpretable and operationally meaningful early-warning capability for autonomous landing systems.