Diagnostic Modelling: a framework of principles for responsible energy systems modelling

TL;DR

Diagnostic Modelling is a framework that promotes transparency and critical analysis of energy systems models to better understand uncertainties and support informed decision-making in the energy transition.

Contribution

It introduces Diagnostic Modelling as a new approach for critically interrogating energy models to uncover robust, mechanistic explanations despite uncertainties.

Findings

Encourages transparency and critical engagement with models.

Uncovers mechanistic explanations that are robust to uncertainties.

Supports broader participation and consensus in energy policy.

Abstract

Energy systems optimisation models are a leading tool for informing decisions in the energy transition. However, these models often remain opaque, and results are frequently presented without a clear discussion of their epistemic limitations. We propose Diagnostic Modelling as a framework wherein modellers critically interrogate their models and explore uncertainties to uncover mechanistic explanations that offer policy-relevant insights. Mechanistic explanations provide fundamental understanding that remains valid despite model uncertainty and does not depend on detailed knowledge of a specific model. By adopting a more open and transparent approach to engaging with energy systems models, Diagnostic Modelling encourages the participation of a broader range of decision-makers, thereby building consensus in support of the energy transition.