Regulation Zero 2: A Flow-Centric Sequential Regulation Planning Framework to Counter Regulation Cascading in Pre-tactical Air Traffic Flow Management

TL;DR

This paper introduces Regulation Zero 2, a flow-centric sequential regulation planning framework that mitigates regulation cascading in air traffic management through hierarchical Monte Carlo Tree Search and efficient heuristics.

Contribution

It presents a novel sequential regulation planning method that operates in regulation space, improving efficiency and effectiveness over existing flight-centric approaches.

Findings

Regulation Zero 2 outperforms baseline methods like simulated-annealing and NSGA-II.

It achieves higher objective improvements with a tighter scope of impact.

Regulation cascading can reduce potential regulation effectiveness by up to 50%.

Abstract

Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) traffic regulations are being increasingly used as rising demand meets persistent workforce shortages. This operational strain has amplified a critical phenomenon that we call \emph{regulation cascading}: the compounding, non-linear interactions that occur when multiple regulations influence one another in unpredictable ways. As the number and complexity of regulations grow, cascading effects become more pronounced, undermining the network operator's ability to protect sectors reliably. To address this challenge, we introduce Regulation Zero 2, an updated sequential planning framework that natively operates in the regulation space, optimizing over ordered sequences of flow-level regulations that remain compatible as much as possible with existing slot-allocation systems such as CASA and RBS++. We equipped Regulation Zero 2 with new heuristics to render flow finding more efficient. At its core, the method employs a hierarchical Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) that first samples congestion hotspots and then selects candidate regulations synthesized by a local proposal engine. Each proposal is evaluated by a fast First-Planned-First-Served (FPFS) allocator to estimate its reward, with these feedbacks guiding the subsequent MCTS exploration. Experiments on many pan-European summer-peak traffic days that Regulation Zero delivers promising and consistent performance. Compared to a flight-centric simulated-annealing and NSGA-II baselines, it achieves markedly higher objective improvements, while maintaining a tighter scope of impact on the network. Ablation studies also found that Regulation Cascading could reduce up to 50\% of potential effectiveness. RZ also preserves FPFS fairness and supports expert knowledge injection, offering a pragmatic and low-disruption pathway toward automation in operations.