State Forecasting in an Estimation Framework with Surrogate Sensor Modeling

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel framework combining simplified reference dynamics with surrogate measurement models to improve state estimation of space objects from limited observational data.

Contribution

It presents an integrated approach that fuses physics-based models with data-driven surrogates to enhance state estimation under partial observability in aerospace applications.

Findings

Demonstrated accurate reconstruction of system dynamics from incomplete data

Validated framework's robustness through extensive numerical experiments

Showed improved state estimation in space situational awareness scenarios

Abstract

In recent years, computational power and data availability breakthroughs have revolutionized our ability to analyze complex physical systems through the inverse problem approach. Data-driven techniques like system identification and machine learning play an important role in this field, allowing us to gain insights into previously inaccessible phenomena. However, a major hurdle remains: How can meaningful information from partial measurements be extracted? In the aerospace domain, the challenge of state estimation is particularly pronounced due to the limited availability of observational data and the constraints imposed by sensor capabilities for tracking resident space objects (RSOs). To address these limitations, advanced compensation methodologies are required. Currently, range and bearing measurements obtained from radar and optical systems constitute the primary observational tools in the space situational awareness (SSA) community. In this work, we propose a novel framework that integrates a simplified reference dynamics model with a data-driven surrogate measurement model. This fusion process leverages the strengths of both models to estimate complex dynamical behaviors under conditions of partial observability. Extensive numerical experiments were conducted across multiple datasets to validate the proposed framework. The results demonstrate its efficacy in accurately reconstructing system dynamics from incomplete measurement data. Furthermore, to ensure the robustness of the framework, an initial consistency analysis of the surrogate modeling approach is presented. By addressing the current challenges and refining the integration of data-driven techniques with traditional physics-based modeling, this framework aims to advance state estimation methodologies in the aerospace sector.