Instability-Aware Steering of an Extreme Atmospheric River in an AI Weather Foundation Model

TL;DR

This study explores the potential to steer extreme atmospheric rivers using instability-aware perturbations within an AI weather model, aiming for societal risk reduction.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach to influence weather trajectories by applying Lyapunov-guided interventions in a deep learning weather model.

Findings

Perturbations can induce downstream moisture transport shifts.

The response to interventions is nonlinear and flow-dependent.

Initial results suggest atmospheric chaos could be leveraged for control.

Abstract

Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial investigations into the feasibility of redirecting extreme atmospheric rivers (ARs) through small, instability-aware perturbations. Using the Aurora AI weather foundation model, we identify sensitive upstream locations using finite-time Lyapunov exponents and jet-eddy interaction criteria. We apply an idealized cloud-seeding operator that mimics latent heat release to assess whether these Lyapunov-guided interventions can influence downstream evolution. In a case study of a severe California AR, perturbations induce coherent downstream shifts in moisture transport, reducing intensity at landfall under favorable kinematic conditions. The response is nonlinear and contingent on the local flow geometry. These initial results suggest that the atmosphere's intrinsic chaotic sensitivity could be leveraged for dynamical control, offering a new research direction for extreme event risk mitigation.