Do Projects Learn Across Space and Time? Evidence from the Olympics

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether large-scale projects like the Olympics learn and improve over time and space, finding no evidence of sustained cost reduction despite tactical learning, due to spatiotemporal barriers.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of spatiotemporal barriers to project learning and proposes four strategies to overcome these barriers for strategic improvement.

Findings

No sustained cost reduction over 64 years of Olympics.

Tactical learning occurs but does not lead to strategic improvement.

Spatiotemporal factors block higher-level learning.

Abstract

Do projects learn across space and time? The Olympics, among the largest publicly funded programmes in the world, offer a unique empirical setting. Theoretically, the Games seem ideal for generating "positive learning curves," driving down costs from one iteration to the next. In practice, they do not. Drawing on the concept of "myopia of learning," we argue that spatiotemporality (geographic distance, temporal gaps, and the temporary organisational form of each host committee) combines to block higher-level learning. Our analysis of cost overruns from 1960 to 2024 reveals no sustained improvement over 64 years. Tactical learning abounds, but none aggregates into strategic improvement. We propose four strategies for overcoming the spatiotemporal barrier (incremental, centralising, decentralising, and real options), arguing that radical reform is required.