Polarization and Integration in Global AI Research

TL;DR

This study analyzes three decades of global AI research to reveal polarization between the US and China and varying levels of integration among other countries, informing policy and regulation.

Contribution

It provides a large-scale, data-driven analysis of international collaboration and citation patterns in AI research over time.

Findings

US and China have diverged into two poles of AI research.

UK and Germany are integrated mainly with the US.

Developing countries tend to collaborate only with China.

Abstract

The AI race amplifies security risks and international tensions. While the US restricts mobility and knowledge flows, challenges regulatory efforts to protect its advantage, China leads initiatives of global governance. Both strategies depend on cross-country relationships in AI innovation; yet, how this system evolves is unclear. Here, we measure the processes of polarization and integration in the global AI research over three decades by using large-scale data of scientific publications. Comparing cross-country collaboration and citation links to their random realizations, we find that the US and China have long diverged in both dimensions, forming two poles around which global AI research increasingly revolves. While the United Kingdom and Germany have integrated exclusively with the US, many European countries have converged with both poles. Developing and further developed countries, however, only integrate with China, signaling its expanding influence over the international AI research landscape. Our results inform national science policies and efforts toward global AI regulations.