Exact Finite-Horizon Quantile Kelly for Repeated Multi-Outcome Events

TL;DR

This paper develops an exact finite-horizon quantile theorem for Kelly wagering on repeated multi-outcome events, revealing a piecewise structure and recursive algorithms for optimal wealth strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel exact finite-horizon quantile framework, decomposing the problem into shadow Kelly subproblems and providing recursive boundary algorithms.

Findings

Finite-horizon quantile of wealth is piecewise monomial in wealth coordinates.

Decomposition into finitely many shadow-Kelly subproblems.

Asymptotic convergence of quantile maximizers to Kelly wealth profile.

Abstract

We formulate and prove an exact finite-horizon quantile theorem for repeated identical multi-outcome Kelly wagering in wealth-profile / Arrow--Debreu coordinates. For a fixed $m$-outcome event repeated independently over a horizon $n$, the terminal wealth induced by a one-period wealth profile $W$ is a monomial $W^N$ in the multinomial count vector $N$. We show that every fixed upper quantile of terminal wealth is a positively homogeneous piecewise-monomial function on the closed Arrow--Debreu wealth simplex, equivalently piecewise linear in log-wealth coordinates on the positive interior. The pieces are indexed by the chambers of the multinomial count arrangement, and on each chamber the quantile objective is exactly a one-period Kelly objective for a count-based \emph{shadow law} $k/n$. Consequently the finite-horizon quantile problem decomposes into finitely many shadow-Kelly subproblems. We then refine the interior chamber picture to a finite stratification of the full closed simplex by support faces and arrangement faces, and we prove a weak exact recursive boundary algorithm. We also prove a natural first-order asymptotic collapse to ordinary Kelly, showing that the optimal scaled log-quantile converges to the ordinary Kelly value and that exact finite-horizon maximizers converge to the Kelly wealth profile. For illustration, we include worked binary and ternary examples in the main text and expanded versions in the appendices. We conclude with further remarks and conjectures concerning stronger pruning, higher-order finite-horizon corrections, and extensions to simultaneous wagers.