Long-Term Dynamical Evolution and Ejection of Near-Earth Asteroids

TL;DR

This paper explores machine learning and deep learning techniques as efficient alternatives to high-accuracy numerical integrations for predicting the long-term dynamical evolution and ejection of near-Earth asteroids.

Contribution

It introduces ML and DL models trained on orbital data and recurrence plots to classify asteroid outcomes, offering scalable tools for long-term dynamical analysis.

Findings

Ensemble tree models perform well on orbital data.

Neural networks effectively identify chaotic motion signatures.

Backward integrations show partial overlap between ejected sets.

Abstract

Long-term integrations of asteroid orbits with high-accuracy numerical integrators are essential for understanding dynamical evolution and ejection from the Solar System, but are computationally expensive. Here, we investigate the dynamical behaviour of asteroids and explore machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning (DL) approaches as efficient, scalable alternatives for classifying long-term dynamical outcomes. While the ML classifiers are trained on initial orbital elements, the convolutional neural network is trained on recurrence plots derived from short-period numerical integrations generated with the MERCURY integrator. Ensemble tree models perform strongly on the ephemeris input, and the neural network captures temporal signatures of chaotic motion with comparable or slightly improved accuracy. Backward integrations reveal partial overlap between forward- and reverse-ejected sets, illustrating time-asymmetric behaviour in chaotic regions; these backward results are interpreted only as diagnostic probes rather than reconstructions of past histories. Non-ejected asteroids largely correspond to known dynamical groups, underscoring the constraining role of initial orbital configuration. These methods provide scalable frameworks to complement numerical integrations and inform prioritisation for detailed long-term dynamical studies, with implications for planetary-defence analyses.