Quantifying how AI Panels improve precision

TL;DR

This paper presents a formula to estimate the precision of AI panels in decision-making, emphasizing the benefits of diversity over reliance on single AI systems.

Contribution

It derives a simple mathematical model to evaluate how AI panel size and diversity affect precision in realistic CV-based selection scenarios.

Findings

The formula estimates precision based on panel size, correlation, and decision quantile.

Using diverse AI panels can improve decision precision and reduce reliance on single AI systems.

The model guides optimal AI panel composition depending on decision importance.

Abstract

AI in applications like screening job applicants had become widespread, and may contribute to unemployment especially among the young. Biases in the AIs may become baked into the job selection process, but even in their absence, reliance on a single AI is problematic. In this paper we derive a simple formula to estimate, or at least place an upper bound on, the precision of such approaches for data resembling realistic CVs: $P(q) \approx \frac{\rho n^b + q(1-\rho)}{1 + (n^b - 1)\rho}$ where $b \approx q^* + 0.8 (1 - \rho)$ and $q^*$ is $q$ clipped to $[0.07, 0.22]$ where $P(q)$ is the precision of the top $q$ quantile selected by a panel of $n$ AIs and $\rho$ is their average pairwise correlation. This equation provides a basis for considering how many AIs should be used in a Panel, depending on the importance of the decision. A quantitative discussion of the merits of using a diverse panel of AIs to support decision-making in such areas will move away from dangerous reliance on single AI systems and encourage a balanced assessment of the extent to which diversity needs to be built into the AI parts of the socioeconomic systems that are so important for our future.