Hallucination as Trajectory Commitment: Causal Evidence for Asymmetric Attractor Dynamics in Transformer Generation

TL;DR

This paper provides causal evidence that hallucinations in autoregressive language models are caused by asymmetric attractor dynamics, with early divergence and stable basin structures influencing output trajectories.

Contribution

It introduces a novel causal framework and experimental methods to analyze the dynamics of hallucination formation in transformer language models.

Findings

Hallucinations diverge from factual trajectories at the first generated token.

Injecting hallucinated activations causes widespread output corruption.

Prompt encoding predicts hallucination likelihood at early steps.

Abstract

We present causal evidence that hallucination in autoregressive language models is an early trajectory commitment governed by asymmetric attractor dynamics. Using same-prompt bifurcation, in which we repeatedly sample identical inputs to observe spontaneous divergence, we isolate trajectory dynamics from prompt-level confounds. On Qwen2.5-1.5B across 61 prompts spanning six categories, 27 prompts (44.3%) bifurcate with factual and hallucinated trajectories diverging at the first generated token (KL = 0 at step 0, KL > 1.0 at step 1). Activation patching across 28 layers reveals a pronounced causal asymmetry: injecting a hallucinated activation into a correct trajectory corrupts output in 87.5% of trials (layer 20), while the reverse recovers only 33.3% (layer 24); both exceed the 10.4% baseline (p = 0.025) and 12.5% random-patch control. Window patching shows correction requires sustained multi-step intervention, whereas corruption needs only a single perturbation. Probing the prompt encoding itself, step-0 residual states predict per-prompt hallucination rate at Pearson r = 0.776 at layer 15 (p < 0.001 against a 1000-permutation null); unsupervised clustering identifies five regime-like groups (eta^2 = 0.55) whose saddle-adjacent cluster concentrates 12 of the 13 bifurcating false-premise prompts, indicating that the basin structure is organized around regime commitments fixed at prompt encoding. These findings characterize hallucination as a locally stable attractor basin: entry is probabilistic and rapid, exit demands coordinated intervention across layers and steps, and the relevant basins are selected by clusterable regimes already discernible at step 0.