Synchronized disease and behavioural dynamics in weakly coupled populations

TL;DR

This paper models how social influence causes synchronized oscillations in disease spread and vaccination behavior across weakly connected populations, highlighting the role of social feedback and payoff sensitivity.

Contribution

It introduces a coupled behavioral-epidemiological model demonstrating how social influence leads to synchronization or anti-synchronization of disease dynamics.

Findings

Coupling induces synchronization of disease and behavior oscillations.

Different payoff sensitivities can cause either synchronization or anti-synchronization.

Social influence significantly impacts epidemic and vaccination dynamics.

Abstract

The spread of infectious disease is strongly influenced by social dynamics. In addition to infection risk, individuals vaccination decisions depend on prevailing social behavior: high infection levels and widespread vaccination can increase vaccine uptake, which in turn suppresses infection. This feedback can generate sustained oscillations in disease prevalence and vaccination behavior. Here, we study two such populations undergoing the same behavioral epidemiological limit cycle and introduce weak coupling between them through social influence. We show that coupling leads to synchronization of disease dynamics between the two groups. Moreover, we find that different payoff sensitivity may lead to synchronization or anti synchronization.