A Diagnostics-First Composite Index for Macro-Financial Resilience to Socioeconomic Challenges: The Gondauri Index with Benchmarking and Scenario Evidence

TL;DR

This paper introduces the Gondauri Index, a composite macro-financial resilience measure across economies, incorporating benchmarking, scenario analysis, and diagnostic tools for policy guidance.

Contribution

It develops a reproducible, multi-dimensional resilience index with benchmarking and scenario evidence, addressing limitations of existing surveillance dashboards.

Findings

Provides a 2024 resilience benchmark snapshot.

Analyzes resilience changes from 2005 to 2024.

Constructs scenario pathways for 2026-2030.

Abstract

In the face of socioeconomic challenges, this paper develops and empirically demonstrates the Gondauri Index (GI) as a reproducible diagnostics-first composite framework for benchmarking macro-financial resilience across heterogeneous economies on a unified 0-100 scale. The GI addresses a key limitation of conventional surveillance dashboards: resilience is multi-dimensional and only partially substitutable, so strength in one area cannot sustainably offset fragility in another. The index integrates three interpretable pillars: Inequality Resilience Score (IRS), Liquidity and Systemic Resilience (LNSR), and Inflation Forecast Coherence (IFC). Cross-country comparability is ensured through robust percentile normalization (p5-p95), a consistent annual country-year design, and explicit missing-data handling via component-level weight renormalization. Empirically, the paper provides a 2024 benchmark snapshot and dynamic evidence for 2005-2024 using 5-year rolling diagnostics and Delta log(GI) contribution decomposition, allowing transparent attribution of resilience changes to pillar-level drivers. A forward-looking extension constructs 2026-2030 scenario pathways and introduces a binding-pillar diagnostic that identifies the dominant constraint on resilience across horizons. Overall, the GI offers a scalable tool for comparative resilience assessment, early-warning diagnostics, and evidence-based policy sequencing.