Ontological Trajectory Forecasting via Finite Semigroup Iteration and Lie Algebra Approximation in Geopolitical Knowledge Graphs

TL;DR

EL-DRUIN is an ontological reasoning system that models geopolitical relationships using algebraic structures and Lie algebra embeddings to forecast long-term trajectories and identify bifurcation points.

Contribution

It introduces a novel algebraic and Lie algebra-based framework for geopolitical forecasting that moves beyond pattern matching of current LLM systems.

Findings

Successfully demonstrated on six geopolitical scenarios.

Provides interpretable probabilities and long-term attractor states.

Open-source implementation with full computation traceability.

Abstract

We present EL-DRUIN, an ontological reasoning system for geopolitical intelligence analysis that combines formal ontology, finite semigroup algebra, and Lie algebra approximation to forecast long-run relationship trajectories. Current LLM-based political analysis systems operate as summarisation engines, producing outputs bounded by textual pattern matching. EL-DRUIN departs from this paradigm by modelling geopolitical relationships as states in a finite set of named Dynamic Patterns, composing patterns via a semigroup operation whose structure constants are defined by an explicit composition table, and embedding each pattern as a vector in an 8-dimensional semantic Lie algebra space. Forward simulation iterates this semigroup operation, yielding reachable pattern sets at each discrete timestep; convergence to idempotent absorbing states (fixed points of the composition) constitutes the predicted long-run attractor. Bayesian posterior weights combine ontology-derived confidence priors with a Lie similarity term measuring the cosine similarity between the vector sum of composing patterns and the target pattern vector, providing interpretable, calibrated probabilities that are not self-reported by a language model. Bifurcation points -- steps at which two candidate attractors have near-equal posterior mass -- are detected and exposed to downstream analysis. We demonstrate the framework on six geopolitical scenarios including US-China technology decoupling and the Taiwan Strait military coercion trajectory. The architecture is publicly available as an open-source system with a Streamlit frontend exposing full computation traces, Bayesian posterior breakdowns, and 8D ontological state vectors.