Evaluating the impact of longitudinal treatment strategies in the presence of informative monitoring and time-dependent confounding

TL;DR

This paper develops and evaluates methods for estimating causal effects of longitudinal treatments on time-to-event outcomes using EHR data, accounting for informative monitoring of confounders.

Contribution

It adapts inverse probability weighting, G-computation, and TMLE to handle informative monitoring by including monitoring indicators as confounders.

Findings

Ignoring monitoring causes biased treatment effect estimates.

The proposed methods reduce bias in causal effect estimation.

Simulation studies demonstrate improved accuracy over simpler approaches.

Abstract

Routinely collected data from electronic health records (EHR) provide opportunities to study effects of longitudinal treatment strategies in real-world clinical settings. A challenge presented by EHR data is that frequency of covariate monitoring differs by patient, covariate type and over time, and may be informative about a patient's health status. Many causal inference methods assume measurements of covariates are observed at a common set of regular time points. In this paper we describe and evaluate methods for estimating causal effects of longitudinal treatments on time-to-event outcomes in the presence of informative monitoring of time-dependent confounders. We show how methods based on inverse probability weighting, G-computation and longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) can be adapted to allow for informative monitoring by incorporating monitoring indicator variables as additional time-dependent confounders. We evaluate these methods using a simulation study, comparing against more simple approaches that ignore monitoring variables. We demonstrate that ignoring monitoring can result in biased estimates of treatment effects. The methods are illustrated through an investigation into the effect of early versus delayed initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation on mortality of intensive care patients using routinely-collected data from an intensive care unit. We consider static treatment strategies such as `always treat' and `never treat' but also generalise to treatment strategies that allow for flexibility in the exact initiation time and duration of treatment.