Hypothesizing an effect size by considering individual variation

TL;DR

This paper proposes a method for formulating realistic hypotheses about average treatment effects by analyzing the distribution of individual effects, with applications across various fields.

Contribution

It introduces an approach to conceptualize average effects by examining the distribution of individual effects, enhancing hypothesis formulation in experimental design.

Findings

Illustrated with examples in medicine, economics, and psychology.

Provides a framework for considering effect size variability.

Helps in designing more realistic hypotheses for studies.

Abstract

When designing and evaluating an experiment or observational study, it is useful to have a realistic hypothesis regarding the average treatment effect. We present an approach to conceptualizing this average by first considering a distribution of effects. We demonstrate with examples in medicine, economics, and psychology.