Socio-demographic inequalities in the maximum human lifespan

TL;DR

This study provides statistical evidence for an upper limit to human lifespan and explores how it varies across socio-demographic groups using data from Belgium and the Netherlands.

Contribution

It is the first to analyze socio-demographic differences in the maximum human lifespan using extreme value theory on individual-level data.

Findings

Men have lower maximum lifespans than women.

Widowed individuals and those in institutional households have shorter maximum lifespans.

Non-Western European origin and higher education are associated with longer maximum lifespans.

Abstract

The existence of an upper limit to the human lifespan has been widely debated, with studies offering both supporting and opposing evidence. Using unique individual-level death and population records for individuals aged 90 and older in Belgium and the Netherlands between 1995 and 2022, we provide statistical evidence supporting the existence of an upper limit. A related yet unexplored question is whether this life span limit differs across socio-demographic groups. Our microdata include information on the sex, origin, civil status, type of household, and education level of each individual. Using tools from extreme value theory, we quantify and compare the upper tail of human lifespan distributions across these socio-demographic characteristics. We find that men have a statistically lower maximum lifespan than women and that individuals who are widowed or live in institutional households have a clearly lower maximum lifespan. Finally, individuals of non-Western European origin and those with higher educational attainment exhibit longer maximum lifespans.