Differentially Private Modeling of Disease Transmission within Human Contact Networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a differential privacy framework for modeling disease transmission on sensitive contact networks, enabling privacy protection while preserving epidemiological insights.

Contribution

It develops a three-step pipeline combining node-level differential privacy, statistical network modeling, and disease simulation, applicable to sensitive contact data.

Findings

Privacy noise is small compared to sampling and model errors.

Synthetic networks retain key structural properties for disease modeling.

The approach effectively balances privacy and epidemiological utility.

Abstract

Epidemiologic studies of infectious diseases often rely on models of contact networks to capture the complex interactions that govern disease spread, and ongoing projects aim to vastly increase the scale at which such data can be collected. However, contact networks may include sensitive information, such as sexual relationships or drug use behavior. Protecting individual privacy while maintaining the scientific usefulness of the data is crucial. We propose a privacy-preserving pipeline for disease spread simulation studies based on a sensitive network that integrates differential privacy (DP) with statistical network models such as stochastic block models (SBMs) and exponential random graph models (ERGMs). Our pipeline comprises three steps: (1) compute network summary statistics using \emph{node-level} DP (which corresponds to protecting individuals' contributions); (2) fit a statistical model, like an ERGM, using these summaries, which allows generating synthetic networks reflecting the structure of the original network; and (3) simulate disease spread on the synthetic networks using an agent-based model. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach using a simple Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) disease model under multiple configurations. We compare both numerical results, such as simulated disease incidence and prevalence, as well as qualitative conclusions such as intervention effect size, on networks generated with and without differential privacy constraints. Our experiments are based on egocentric sexual network data from the ARTNet study (a survey about HIV-related behaviors). Our results show that the noise added for privacy is small relative to other sources of error (sampling and model misspecification). This suggests that, in principle, curators of such sensitive data can provide valuable epidemiologic insights while protecting privacy.