Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets

TL;DR

Prediction Arena benchmarks AI models' predictive accuracy and decision-making in real-world prediction markets, revealing insights into model performance, platform effects, and efficiency over a 57-day live trading evaluation.

Contribution

Introduces a novel benchmark for autonomous AI trading in live prediction markets, highlighting platform influence and model performance dynamics.

Findings

Models' prediction accuracy correlates with trading success.

Platform design significantly impacts model performance.

Some models achieved positive returns on Polymarket despite losses on Kalshi.

Abstract

We introduce Prediction Arena, a benchmark for evaluating AI models' predictive accuracy and decision-making by enabling them to trade autonomously on live prediction markets with real capital. Unlike synthetic benchmarks, Prediction Arena tests models in environments where trades execute on actual exchanges (Kalshi and Polymarket), providing objective ground truth that cannot be gamed or overfitted. Each model operates as an independent agent starting with $10,000, making autonomous decisions every 15-45 minutes. Over a 57-day longitudinal evaluation (January 12 to March 9, 2026), we track two cohorts: six frontier models in live trading (Cohort 1, full period) and four next-generation models in paper trading (Cohort 2, 3-day preliminary). For Cohort 1, final Kalshi returns range from -16.0% to -30.8%. Our analysis identifies a clear performance hierarchy: initial prediction accuracy and the ability to capitalize on correct predictions are the main drivers, while research volume shows no correlation with outcomes. A striking cross-platform contrast emerges from parallel Polymarket live trading: Cohort 1 models averaged only -1.1% on Polymarket vs. -22.6% on Kalshi, with grok-4-20-checkpoint achieving a 71.4% settlement win rate - the highest across any platform or cohort. gemini-3.1-pro-preview (Cohort 2), which executed zero trades on Kalshi, achieved +6.02% on Polymarket in 3 days - the best return of any model across either cohort - demonstrating that platform design has a profound effect on which models succeed. Beyond performance, we analyze computational efficiency (token usage, cycle time), settlement accuracy, exit patterns, and market preferences, providing a comprehensive view of how frontier models behave under real financial pressure.