Concentrated siting of AI data centers drives regional power-system stress under rising global compute demand

TL;DR

This paper forecasts the regional power system stress caused by the concentrated growth of AI data centers from 2025 to 2030, highlighting vulnerabilities and the need for resilient planning.

Contribution

It introduces an AI-energy coupling framework combining LLM analysis with energy modeling to project AI data center electricity demand and regional grid impacts.

Findings

AI data centers will consume up to 295 TWh by 2030, about 1% of global power demand.

High regional power stress is expected in Oregon, Virginia, and Ireland.

Diversified systems like Texas and Japan can better absorb new AI loads.

Abstract

The rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is driving unprecedented growth in global computational demand, placing increasing pressure on electricity systems. This study introduces an AI-energy coupling framework that combines large language models (LLMs)-based analysis of corporate, policy, and media data with quantitative energy-system modeling to forecast the electricity footprint of AI-driven data centers from 2025 to 2030. Results show that the new AI infrastructure is highly concentrated in North America, Western Europe, and the Asia-Pacific, which together account for more than 90% of projected compute capacity. Aggregate electricity consumption by the six leading firms is projected to increase from roughly 118 TWh in 2024 to between 239 TWh and 295 TWh by 2030, equivalent to about 1% of global power demand. Regions such as Oregon, Virginia, and Ireland may experience high Power Stress Index (PSI) values exceeding 0.25, indicating local grid vulnerability, whereas diversified systems such as those in Texas and Japan can absorb new loads more effectively. These findings demonstrate that AI infrastructure is evolving from a marginal digital service into a structural component of power-system dynamics, underscoring the need for anticipatory planning that aligns computational growth with renewable expansion and grid resilience.