Statistical Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Maximum Precipitation Events on the Rio Grande do Sul

TL;DR

This paper conducts a statistical analysis of maximum precipitation events in Rio Grande do Sul to identify spatial and temporal patterns, aiding climate trend forecasting for aerospace applications.

Contribution

It introduces a method using variogram fitting to analyze maximum annual rainfalls and their occurrence times, linking patterns to atmospheric phenomena.

Findings

Identified spatial and temporal patterns of maximum rainfall.

Linked rainfall patterns to atmospheric phenomena like jets.

Proposed a method applicable to other regions in Brazil.

Abstract

A statistical analysis of precipitation at Rio Grande do Sul State was presented in this article. The aim of this work was to identify spatial and temporal patterns of maximum precipitation, which was achieved by fitting a theoretical variogram in maximum annual rainfalls and their times of occurrence. In the literature, it was found that this pattern occurs according to phenomena typical from middle latitude, such as low and high level jets, and interactions between them. Some years ago, the relationship between maximum annual rainfalls and synoptic predominant configurations was found. Therefore, this work sought to understand the climatic characteristics that are important in Aerospace and Aeronautics, as extreme weather can cause numerous consequences in these activities. The use and validation of this proposed method would make possible its application in other regions of interest in the Brazilian aerospace. Understanding these climatological features of the atmospheric circulation dynamics, and analyzing maximum annual rainfall would allow a more efficient and appropriate climate trend forecast and its application in aerospace activities.