EAGLE: Edge-Aware Graph Learning for Proactive Delivery Delay Prediction in Smart Logistics Networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces EAGLE, a hybrid deep learning framework combining temporal and spatial modeling to proactively predict delivery delays in smart logistics networks, outperforming existing reactive methods.

Contribution

It proposes a novel hybrid model integrating Transformer and Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network for supply chain delay prediction, emphasizing proactive risk management.

Findings

Achieved an F1-score of 0.8762 and AUC-ROC of 0.9773 on real-world data.

Demonstrated significant stability and robustness across multiple random seeds.

Outperformed baseline methods in predictive accuracy and training stability.

Abstract

Modern logistics networks generate rich operational data streams at every warehouse node and transportation lane -- from order timestamps and routing records to shipping manifests -- yet predicting delivery delays remains predominantly reactive. Existing predictive approaches typically treat this problem either as a tabular classification task, ignoring network topology, or as a time-series anomaly detection task, overlooking the spatial dependencies of the supply chain graph. To bridge this gap, we propose a hybrid deep learning framework for proactive supply chain risk management. The proposed method jointly models temporal order-flow dynamics via a lightweight Transformer patch encoder and inter-hub relational dependencies through an Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network (E-GAT), optimized via a multi-task learning objective. Evaluated on the real-world DataCo Smart Supply Chain dataset, our framework achieves consistent improvements over baseline methods, yielding an F1-score of 0.8762 and an AUC-ROC of 0.9773. Across four independent random seeds, the framework exhibits a cross-seed F1 standard deviation of only 0.0089 -- a 3.8 times improvement over the best ablated variant -- achieving the strongest balance of predictive accuracy and training stability among all evaluated models.