Assessment of PLATO Science Performance

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the expected planet detection yield of the upcoming PLATO mission, considering current uncertainties in planet occurrence rates and stellar noise, to inform follow-up resource planning.

Contribution

It provides updated estimates of PLATO's detection yield by analyzing various assumptions and noise factors, aiding mission planning and scientific understanding.

Findings

Estimated detection yield varies with planet occurrence rates.

Stellar variability significantly impacts detection capabilities.

Results help constrain planet formation models.

Abstract

The PLATO mission is scheduled for launch early 2027. In this paper we present an overview of the performance drivers for the mission at the time where all flight models of the cameras have been tested and integrated on the optical bench. The PLATO consortium needs an estimate of the planet detection yield to dimension the ground-based radial velocity follow-up resources. We provide updated estimates on the yield of planet detections that can be expected from the mission under certain assumptions. As of today, large uncertainties remain on the planet occurrence rates, especially for small planets in long-period orbits, and on our ability to detect these planets in the presence of stellar variability and instrumental noise. To partially overcome these limitations, we compare results using different planet occurrence rates, detectability rates, and we include an estimate on the expected contribution of stellar variability to the noise budget. The final detection yield of PLATO will provide constraints to planet occurrence rates which in turn will help constraining planet formation models.