Assessing Maintenance of Medium Voltage Cable Networks Under Time-Varying Loading

TL;DR

This paper presents a new method to assess and predict maintenance needs of medium voltage cable networks under time-varying loads, considering ageing and failure risks due to energy transition-driven load changes.

Contribution

It introduces a Weibull-based failure rate model and a shortcut method for maintenance planning in heterogeneous MV cable populations under dynamic loading conditions.

Findings

Old, low-quality cables cause 82% of failures.

High loading periods significantly accelerate cable ageing.

Maintenance needs could increase 10-300 times under future energy transition scenarios.

Abstract

The electrification and ongoing energy transition lead to systematic changes in electricity loading and variability in power systems. Distribution systems were designed for regular operating patterns, assuming constant low loading. Now, operators need to assess whether their assets can withstand more, as well as time-varying loading. Operating the system at or near its ampacity potentially accelerates thermal ageing, so the question arises: 'how much can one operate at the limits while keeping maintenance and failures low?' This paper introduces a novel approach that derives a time-varying Weibull approximation of failure rates using thermal models and provides a shortcut method to quantify maintenance implications under time-varying loading for heterogeneous MV cable populations. The case studies investigate a dataset from Denmark and the Oberrhein Medium Voltage (MV) system in Germany, studying ageing assets and the interplay with loading, and replacement paradigms of two different cable insulation types. The studies demonstrate that a small fraction of 25% of old, low-quality cables leads to 82% of failures, and 1.4% of the time of highest loading can cause 46% of cable ageing. The case studies also demonstrate that maintenance needs may be between 10-300 times higher under future loading conditions associated with the energy transition, specifically in networks that have older PILC cables. This paper provides a new tool for operators to plan maintenance under more realistic, future operating conditions.