Beyond Retrieval: Modeling Confidence Decay and Deterministic Agentic Platforms in Generative Engine Optimization

TL;DR

This paper introduces a deterministic multi-agent approach to improve Generative Engine Optimization by modeling confidence decay and reducing hallucinations, moving beyond traditional probabilistic retrieval methods.

Contribution

It proposes a new paradigm shift towards deterministic intent routing, introduces the Semantic Entropy Drift model, and validates a trust brokerage system in industrial AI applications.

Findings

Near-zero hallucination rates in routing specific tasks

Effective modeling of confidence decay in LLMs

Demonstrated improved trustworthiness in industrial AI setting

Abstract

Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is rapidly reshaping digital marketing paradigms in the era of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, current GEO strategies predominantly rely on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which inherently suffers from probabilistic hallucinations and the "zero-click" paradox, failing to establish sustainable commercial trust. In this paper, we systematically deconstruct the probabilistic flaws of existing RAG-based GEO and propose a paradigm shift towards deterministic multi-agent intent routing. First, we mathematically formulate Semantic Entropy Drift (SED) to model the dynamic decay of confidence curves in LLMs over continuous temporal and contextual perturbations. To rigorously quantify optimization value in black-box commercial engines, we introduce the Isomorphic Attribution Regression (IAR) model, leveraging a Multi-Agent System (MAS) probe with strict human-in-the-loop physical isolation to enforce hallucination penalties. Furthermore, we architect the Deterministic Agent Handoff (DAH) protocol, conceptualizing an Agentic Trust Brokerage (ATB) ecosystem where LLMs function solely as intent routers rather than final answer generators. We empirically validate this architecture using EasyNote, an industrial AI meeting minutes product by Yishu Technology. By routing the intent of "knowledge graph mapping on an infinite canvas" directly to its specialized proprietary agent via DAH, we demonstrate the reduction of vertical task hallucination rates to near zero. This work establishes a foundational theoretical framework for next-generation GEO and paves the way for a well-ordered, deterministic human-AI collaboration ecosystem.