Multidecadal Cycles Study in the Climate Indexes Series Using Wavelet Analysis in North/Northeast Brazil

TL;DR

This study analyzes 80 years of climate index data in North/Northeast Brazil using wavelet analysis, revealing multidecadal cycles linked to solar activity and climate variability.

Contribution

It applies wavelet analysis to identify multidecadal climate cycles and their association with solar activity in Brazilian climate data.

Findings

Identified predominant cycles of 2.66, 5.33, 10.66, and 21.33 years.

Multidecadal cycles correlate with solar activity and climate variability.

Observed similar cycles in rainfall data across Brazilian locations.

Abstract

This study investigates the climatic index time series over the most recent 80 years, using monthly mean values from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and monthly solar activity represented by sunspot numbers (MS), obtained from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and the World Data Center SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. The statistical software R was used with the \texttt{WaveletComp} package to generate Morlet wavelet power spectra, and bivariate cross-wavelet analysis using the \texttt{biwavelet} package. The results show predominant cycles with variability scales of 32, 64, 128, and 256 months, corresponding approximately to 2.66, 5.33, 10.66, and 21.33 years. These frequencies are observed in the period from January 1933 to September 2016, totaling 993 months (82.75 years), characterizing decadal and multidecadal variability. These multidecadal cycles (of the order of 10.66 and 21.33 years) suggest a possible association with solar activity variability and climate variability in the ocean-atmosphere system. Rainfall data from January 1951 to September 2017 were analyzed for Bel\'em, S\~ao Luiz, Fortaleza, Natal, and Fernando de Noronha, forming a north to northeast Brazilian transect. These series show similarity with the decadal and multidecadal cycles observed in the SOI, PDO, and sunspot series.