Power one sequential tests exist for weakly compact $\mathscr P$ against $\mathscr P^c$

TL;DR

This paper establishes general conditions under which power-one sequential tests exist for weakly compact null hypotheses in i.i.d. settings, and constructs an asymptotically optimal $e$-process.

Contribution

It provides a broad sufficient condition for the existence of power-one sequential tests against weakly compact sets, and develops an asymptotically optimal $e$-process.

Findings

Existence of power-one sequential tests for any weakly compact $\\mathscr P$.

Construction of an $e$-process that diverges under $\mathscr P^c$.

Development of an $e$-process with asymptotic relative growth rate optimality.

Abstract

Suppose we observe data from a distribution $P$ and we wish to test the composite null hypothesis that $P\in\mathscr P$ against a composite alternative $P\in \mathscr Q\subseteq \mathscr P^c$. Herbert Robbins and coauthors pointed out around 1970 that, while no batch test can have a level $\alpha\in(0,1)$ and power equal to one, sequential tests can be constructed with this fantastic property. Since then, and especially in the last decade, a plethora of sequential tests have been developed for a wide variety of settings. However, the literature has not yet provided a clean and general answer as to when such power-one sequential tests exist. This paper provides a remarkably general sufficient condition (that we also prove is not necessary). Focusing on i.i.d. laws in Polish spaces without any further restriction, we show that there exists a level-$\alpha$ sequential test for any weakly compact $\mathscr P$, that is power-one against $\mathscr P^c$ (or any subset thereof). We show how to aggregate such tests into an $e$-process for $\mathscr P$ that increases to infinity under $\mathscr P^c$. We conclude by building an $e$-process that is asymptotically relatively growth rate optimal against $\mathscr P^c$, an extremely powerful result.