YC Bench: a Live Benchmark for Forecasting Startup Outperformance in Y Combinator Batches

TL;DR

YC Bench introduces a live, short-term benchmark for predicting startup outperformance within Y Combinator batches, enabling rapid evaluation of forecasting models using publicly available signals.

Contribution

The paper presents YC Bench, a novel live benchmark that measures early startup success prediction using a KPI based on web visibility, with data and code openly available.

Findings

Pre-Demo Day Score effectively predicts top performers.

Google mentions prior to application recover 55% of top startups.

YC Bench enables evaluation cycles in months, not years.

Abstract

Forecasting startup success is notoriously difficult, partly because meaningful outcomes, such as exits, large funding rounds, and sustained revenue growth, are rare and can take years to materialize. As a result, signals are sparse and evaluation cycles are slow. Y Combinator batches offer a unique mitigation: each batch comprises around 200 startups, funded simultaneously, with evaluation at Demo Day only three months later. We introduce YC Bench, a live benchmark for forecasting early outperformance within YC batches. Using the YC W26 batch as a case study (196 startups), we measure outperformance with a Pre-Demo Day Score, a KPI combining publicly available traction signals and web visibility. This short-term metric enables rapid evaluation of forecasting models. As a baseline, we take Google mentions prior to the YC W26 application deadline, a simple proxy for prior brand recognition, recovering 6 of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day (55% recall). YC Bench provides a live benchmark for studying startup success forecasting, with iteration cycles measured in months rather than years. Code and Data are available on GitHub: https://github.com/benstaf/ycbench